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UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

15-13  |  Road

65
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Wisdom Gym
View Odds Details →

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

14-16  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
MAVERICKS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tarleton State)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 TexansTAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

42.1%

Texans Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TAR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

UTA By 1-7 points

23.0%

UTA By 8-14 points

12.2%

TAR By 1-7 points

26.8%

TAR By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
73
UT ARLINGTON
75
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
68
UT ARLINGTON
72
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 UTA @ TAR 65 - 60
Jan 21, 2026 TAR @ UTA 64 - 71
Dec 29, 2025 TAR @ UTA 69 - 63
Feb 22, 2025 TAR @ UTA 57 - 67
Jan 4, 2025 UTA @ TAR 74 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.7% more
Tarleton State: 3.9 vs UT Arlington: 3.1
Assists (L5) +18.6% more
Tarleton State: 11.1 vs UT Arlington: 9.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.0%
Tarleton State: 36.0% vs UT Arlington: 23.0%
Steals (L5) +8.9% more
Tarleton State: 7.4 vs UT Arlington: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 73.0 65
TAR Score 75.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 23.0 27.0 / 24.0
Assists 11.1 / 9.4 8.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.1 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 39.8 40.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 73.2 / 65.0 61.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 35.4 29.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.4 / 6.8 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 12.6 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
TAR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
UTA
TAR
UTA
ML
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
ATS
69% 22-10
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
TTL
50% 16-16
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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