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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

36-19-6  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

31-16-13  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 1.01 0.964 --
Arturs Silovs None-None 4.29 0.840 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.01 Ldr GAA 4.29
0.964 Ldr Save % 0.840
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
📊
PENGUINS
0%
SABRES --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pittsburgh)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

15.9%

Penguins Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

BUF By 1 goal

6.6%

BUF By 2-3 goals

3.7%

PIT By 1 goal

17.5%

PIT By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BUFFALO
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
2
BUFFALO
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penguins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Penguins (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 BUF @ PIT 5 - 1
Feb 5, 2026 PIT @ BUF 5 - 2
Nov 26, 2025 BUF @ PIT 2 - 4
Oct 3, 2025 BUF @ PIT 4 - 5
Oct 1, 2025 PIT @ BUF 5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +25.2% more
Pittsburgh: 20.1 vs Buffalo: 16.1
Shots on Goal (L5) +12.0% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs Buffalo: 27.2
Power Play % (L5) +23.8%
Buffalo: 26.3% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Takeaways (L5) +8.7% more
Buffalo: 5.9 vs Pittsburgh: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 3.0 5
PIT Score 5.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
65%MONEY35%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
BUF
PIT
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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