Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaspers @ Stags MAN @ FAIR

MANHATTAN

JASPERSMAN

12-19  |  Road

60
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 8:30 PM ET
Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall
View Odds Details →

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

19-12  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
JASPERS
100%
📊
STAGS
0%
JASPERS --
STAGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Fairfield)
JaspersMAN (-3.5) 0 StagsFAIR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaspers Cover

27.4%

Stags Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)

MAN By 1-7 points

16.9%

MAN By 8-14 points

6.8%

FAIR By 1-7 points

26.8%

FAIR By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MANHATTAN
71
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
67
MANHATTAN
78
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stags Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stags Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stags (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Stags (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 MAN @ FAIR 60 - 71
Jan 14, 2026 MAN @ FAIR 62 - 98
Dec 5, 2025 FAIR @ MAN 66 - 70
Feb 16, 2025 MAN @ FAIR 80 - 67
Jan 23, 2025 FAIR @ MAN 87 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +76.9% more
Fairfield: 2.8 vs Manhattan: 1.6
Turnovers (L5) +29.0% more
Fairfield: 13.4 vs Manhattan: 10.4
Rebounding (L5) +17.2% more
Fairfield: 37.9 vs Manhattan: 32.3
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Fairfield: 40.9% vs Manhattan: 38.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MAN Score 65.0 60
FAIR Score 71.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 28.3 37.0 / 24.0
Assists 10.0 / 11.9 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.8 / 1.6 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 38.8 38.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 65.7 / 80.1 73.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 32.3 37.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.5 / 9.3 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 10.4 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MAN
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MAN
11-19-1 (36.7%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
FAIR Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +2.4
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
MAN
FAIR
MAN
ML
55% 18-15
52% 16-15
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
ATS
48% 16-17
52% 16-15
61% 20-13
69% 22-10
TTL
48% 16-17
77% 24-7
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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