SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
14-17 | Road
67
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
23-8 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
100%
TOMMIES
0%
JACKRABBITS
--
TOMMIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STMN -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)
SDST By 1-7 points
0.8%
SDST By 8-14 points
0.1%
STMN By 1-7 points
4.8%
STMN By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota State
59
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
St. Thomas-Minnesota
82
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
South Dakota State
75
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
St. Thomas-Minnesota
70
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tommies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tommies (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
SDST @ STMN
67 - 80
Feb 4, 2026
STMN @ SDST
77 - 62
Jan 22, 2026
SDST @ STMN
69 - 74
Feb 6, 2025
STMN @ SDST
86 - 102
Jan 8, 2025
SDST @ STMN
72 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+124.7% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 3.6
vs
South Dakota State: 1.6
Assists (L5)
+45.5% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 18.9
vs
South Dakota State: 13.0
Steals (L5)
+16.5% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 4.5
vs
South Dakota State: 3.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 51.7%
vs
South Dakota State: 45.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDST Score
59.0
67
STMN Score
82.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.6 / 41.2
44.0 / 21.0
Assists
18.9 / 13.0
14.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.6 / 1.6
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
51.7 / 45.1
51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
59.0 / 73.6
80.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
37.5 / 39.9
25.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.5 / 3.8
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 10.4
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
STMN
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
SDST
STMN
SDST
ML
64%
21-12
75%
24-8
64%
21-12
53%
17-15
ATS
70%
23-10
78%
25-7
64%
21-12
53%
17-15
TTL
61%
20-13
53%
17-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
