Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hilltoppers @ Bears WKU @ MOST

WESTERN KENTUCKY

HILLTOPPERSWKU

18-11  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

13-16  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
HILLTOPPERS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
HILLTOPPERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Western Kentucky)
HilltoppersWKU (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hilltoppers Cover

69.1%

Bears Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WKU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

WKU By 1-7 points

27.2%

WKU By 8-14 points

23.0%

MOST By 1-7 points

18.6%

MOST By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
WESTERN KENTUCKY
71
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
73
WESTERN KENTUCKY
78
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hilltoppers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hilltoppers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 WKU @ MOST 74 - 87
Jan 14, 2026 MOST @ WKU 72 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +15.2% more
Western Kentucky: 7.7 vs Missouri State: 6.6
Assists (L5) +14.0% more
Western Kentucky: 17.9 vs Missouri State: 15.4
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
Western Kentucky: 83.3% vs Missouri State: 71.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
Western Kentucky: 42.1% vs Missouri State: 33.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 76.0 74
MOST Score 71.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 42.1 48.0 / 15.0
Assists 15.4 / 17.9 17.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.8 / 0.8 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 51.4 52.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 83.3 72.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 36.1 32.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.7 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 9.3 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
WKU
MOST
WKU
ML
65% 22-12
56% 18-14
62% 21-13
66% 21-11
ATS
68% 23-11
53% 17-15
62% 21-13
66% 21-11
TTL
44% 15-19
56% 18-14
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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