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EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

7-24  |  Road

59
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 9:30 PM ET
Enterprise Center
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN IOWA

PANTHERSUNI

19-12  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
PURPLE ACES --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 PanthersUNI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

38.2%

Panthers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNI -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)

EVAN By 1-7 points

21.6%

EVAN By 8-14 points

10.7%

UNI By 1-7 points

27.2%

UNI By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
65
EVANSVILLE
68
NORTHERN IOWA
Simulated Score
65
EVANSVILLE
72
NORTHERN IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o128.5 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u128.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 EVAN @ UNI 59 - 68
Jan 31, 2026 EVAN @ UNI 55 - 71
Jan 4, 2026 UNI @ EVAN 62 - 48
Jan 14, 2025 EVAN @ UNI 56 - 73
Jan 23, 2024 EVAN @ UNI 63 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +82.3% more
Northern Iowa: 6.9 vs Evansville: 3.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Northern Iowa: 41.3% vs Evansville: 35.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Northern Iowa: 49.1% vs Evansville: 44.4%
Blocks (L5) +21.4% more
Evansville: 2.9 vs Northern Iowa: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 65.0 59
UNI Score 68.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.3 / 35.9 21.0 / 36.0
Assists 13.5 / 14.1 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.9 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 44.4 38.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 79.2 73.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 29.2 / 27.7 37.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.9 / 3.8 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 10.5 4.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
UNI Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
UNI Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNI
EVAN
UNI
EVAN
ML
51% 18-17
56% 18-14
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
ATS
49% 17-18
66% 21-11
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
TTL
69% 24-11
62% 20-12
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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