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MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

27-2  |  Road

71
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Carver-Hawkeye Arena
View Odds Details →

IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

20-9  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
0%
📊
HAWKEYES
100%
WOLVERINES --
HAWKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Michigan)
WolverinesMICH (-3.5) 0 HawkeyesIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolverines Cover

88.5%

Hawkeyes Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MICH -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

MICH By 1-7 points

20.1%

MICH By 8-14 points

27.2%

IOWA By 1-7 points

8.0%

IOWA By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
79
MICHIGAN
67
IOWA
Simulated Score
68
MICHIGAN
75
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawkeyes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolverines (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Hawkeyes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 MICH @ IOWA 71 - 68
Dec 7, 2024 IOWA @ MICH 83 - 85
Jan 27, 2024 IOWA @ MICH 88 - 78
Dec 10, 2023 MICH @ IOWA 90 - 80
Jan 12, 2023 MICH @ IOWA 84 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +75.4% more
Michigan: 4.6 vs Iowa: 1.1
Turnovers (L5) +26.8% more
Michigan: 11.0 vs Iowa: 8.0
Rebounding (L5) +22.2% more
Michigan: 35.6 vs Iowa: 27.7
Assists (L5) +21.0% more
Michigan: 17.7 vs Iowa: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MICH Score 79.0 71
IOWA Score 67.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 37.7 27.0 / 50.0
Assists 14.0 / 17.7 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.1 / 4.6 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 50.3 39.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 83.7 / 82.6 92.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 27.7 / 35.6 25.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.9 / 4.9 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 11.0 5.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
IOWA
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
MICH
IOWA
MICH
ML
59% 22-15
78% 31-9
78% 28-8
63% 24-14
ATS
76% 28-9
78% 31-9
78% 28-8
63% 24-14
TTL
57% 21-16
57% 23-17
100% 36-0
100% 38-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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