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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

29-33  |  Road

122
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 8:00 PM ET
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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

23-37  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Memphis)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

34.5%

Grizzlies Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

POR By 1-7 points

20.1%

POR By 8-14 points

9.3%

MEM By 1-7 points

27.4%

MEM By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
114
PORTLAND
118
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
120
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.0 Loss
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 POR @ MEM 122 - 114
Feb 7, 2026 MEM @ POR 115 - 122
Feb 6, 2026 MEM @ POR 115 - 135
Dec 7, 2025 POR @ MEM 96 - 119
Mar 19, 2025 MEM @ POR 99 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +45.5% more
Memphis: 10.9 vs Portland: 7.5
Assists (L5) +22.7% more
Memphis: 29.8 vs Portland: 24.2
Free Throw % (L5) +13.2%
Memphis: 83.8% vs Portland: 70.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.8%
Memphis: 39.3% vs Portland: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 114.0 122
MEM Score 118.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 30.5 44.0 / 35.0
Assists 29.8 / 24.2 25.0 / 29.0
Blocks 5.7 / 6.6 6.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 42.7 45.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 83.8 / 70.6 67.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 41.4 38.0 / 53.0
Steals 10.9 / 7.5 12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 16.8 17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
POR
MEM
POR
ML
57% 59-44
53% 56-49
50% 41-41
55% 49-40
ATS
63% 65-38
62% 65-39-1
50% 41-41
55% 49-40
TTL
70% 71-31-1
56% 58-46-1
100% 82-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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