CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
31-31 | Road
118
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
41-20 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
CELTICS
0%
HORNETS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
CHA By 1-7 points
9.3%
CHA By 8-14 points
2.7%
BOS By 1-7 points
21.6%
BOS By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Boston
126
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Charlotte
98
CHARLOTTE
Boston
118
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o214.5
Loss
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u214.5
Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
CHA @ BOS
102 - 113
Mar 29, 2026
BOS @ CHA
114 - 99
Mar 4, 2026
CHA @ BOS
118 - 89
Apr 13, 2025
CHA @ BOS
86 - 93
Apr 11, 2025
CHA @ BOS
94 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.0% more
Boston: 6.6
vs
Charlotte: 4.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.5%
Boston: 77.5%
vs
Charlotte: 75.0%
Steals (L5)
+41.1% more
Charlotte: 10.3
vs
Boston: 6.1
Turnovers (L5)
+19.3% more
Charlotte: 15.7
vs
Boston: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
115.0
118
BOS Score
126.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 41.3
28.0 / 39.0
Assists
29.1 / 29.3
18.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.6 / 4.6
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 47.4
38.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
77.5 / 75.0
95.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
52.2 / 49.5
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.1 / 10.3
1.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 15.7
16.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
BOS
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CHA
BOS
CHA
ML
57%
61-46
61%
60-39
53%
47-41
48%
40-44
ATS
59%
61-43-3
60%
59-40
53%
47-41
48%
40-44
TTL
56%
60-47
58%
57-42
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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