WAGNER
SEAHAWKSWAG
13-16 | Road
70
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
BLUE DEVILSCCSU
18-11 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
100%
BLUE DEVILS
0%
SEAHAWKS
--
BLUE DEVILS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Central Connecticut)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CCSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCSU)
WAG By 1-7 points
21.6%
WAG By 8-14 points
10.7%
CCSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
CCSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Wagner
70
WAGNER
Central Connecticut
73
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Simulated Score
Wagner
69
WAGNER
Central Connecticut
72
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Devils
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Blue Devils (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
WAG @ CCSU
70 - 60
Feb 7, 2026
WAG @ CCSU
67 - 84
Jan 29, 2026
CCSU @ WAG
62 - 55
Mar 1, 2025
CCSU @ WAG
55 - 48
Jan 10, 2025
WAG @ CCSU
62 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+26.8% more
Central Connecticut: 2.8
vs
Wagner: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
Central Connecticut: 84.3%
vs
Wagner: 78.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Central Connecticut: 47.8%
vs
Wagner: 43.5%
Rebounding (L5)
+16.6% more
Wagner: 39.7
vs
Central Connecticut: 33.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WAG Score
70.0
70
CCSU Score
73.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 40.6
35.0 / 35.0
Assists
12.7 / 13.6
8.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.2
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 43.5
38.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
84.3 / 78.8
67.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 39.7
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.3 / 5.7
1.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 13.4
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAG
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
CCSU
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAG
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
CCSU
14-13-1
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WAG
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.4
CCSU
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCSU
WAG
CCSU
WAG
ML
57%
17-13
63%
19-11
57%
17-13
57%
17-13
ATS
63%
19-11
60%
18-12
57%
17-13
57%
17-13
TTL
60%
18-12
53%
16-14
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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