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GARDNER-WEBB

RUNNIN' BULLDOGSGWEB

3-28  |  Road

65
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 7:30 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE

SPARTANSUPST

13-18  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
RUNNIN' BULLDOGS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
RUNNIN' BULLDOGS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (South Carolina Upstate)
Runnin' BulldogsGWEB (-3.5) 0 SpartansUPST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Runnin' Bulldogs Cover

3.6%

Spartans Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UPST -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UPST)

GWEB By 1-7 points

2.7%

GWEB By 8-14 points

0.5%

UPST By 1-7 points

10.7%

UPST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
69
GARDNER-WEBB
87
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Simulated Score
75
GARDNER-WEBB
72
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Runnin' Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spartans (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Runnin' Bulldogs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 GWEB @ UPST 65 - 64
Feb 28, 2026 GWEB @ UPST 61 - 71
Jan 23, 2026 UPST @ GWEB 65 - 67
Mar 5, 2025 UPST @ GWEB 63 - 83
Feb 15, 2025 GWEB @ UPST 96 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +126.5% more
South Carolina Upstate: 5.6 vs Gardner-Webb: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +33.4% more
South Carolina Upstate: 37.7 vs Gardner-Webb: 28.3
Assists (L5) +31.0% more
South Carolina Upstate: 13.1 vs Gardner-Webb: 10.0
Free Throw % (L5) +20.9%
South Carolina Upstate: 76.7% vs Gardner-Webb: 55.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GWEB Score 69.0 65
UPST Score 87.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.2 / 32.8 35.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.1 / 10.0 16.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.6 / 2.5 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 46.0 44.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 55.8 64.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 28.3 30.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.8 / 6.6 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 11.3 17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GWEB
4-29-0 (12.1%)
Margin: -17.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
UPST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GWEB Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -17.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
UPST
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GWEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: -1.0
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UPST
GWEB
UPST
GWEB
ML
61% 19-12
73% 22-8
83% 25-5
63% 19-11
ATS
61% 19-12
73% 22-8
83% 25-5
63% 19-11
TTL
52% 16-15
53% 16-14
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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