STETSON
HATTERSSTET
11-20 | Road
92
EASTERN KENTUCKY
COLONELSEKU
11-20 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
HATTERS
100%
COLONELS
0%
HATTERS
--
COLONELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Eastern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around EKU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EKU)
STET By 1-7 points
6.8%
STET By 8-14 points
1.7%
EKU By 1-7 points
18.6%
EKU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Stetson
64
STETSON
Eastern Kentucky
77
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Stetson
71
STETSON
Eastern Kentucky
76
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Colonels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colonels
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Colonels (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Colonels (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
STET @ EKU
92 - 76
Feb 7, 2026
STET @ EKU
88 - 100
Feb 8, 2025
EKU @ STET
83 - 58
Jan 23, 2025
STET @ EKU
67 - 66
Feb 10, 2024
EKU @ STET
79 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+57.5% more
Eastern Kentucky: 5.8
vs
Stetson: 3.7
Blocks (L5)
+20.0% more
Eastern Kentucky: 2.7
vs
Stetson: 2.3
Rebounding (L5)
+13.4% more
Eastern Kentucky: 36.1
vs
Stetson: 31.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.4%
Eastern Kentucky: 75.7%
vs
Stetson: 67.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STET Score
64.0
92
EKU Score
77.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 45.4
44.0 / 45.0
Assists
16.8 / 18.7
13.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.3
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 52.7
49.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 67.3
75.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 31.8
27.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.8 / 3.7
3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 12.6
11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STET
Advantage
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
EKU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STET
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: -6.1
ATS +/-: +2.0
EKU
10-19-1
(34.5%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
STET
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EKU
STET
EKU
STET
ML
44%
14-18
55%
18-15
69%
22-10
73%
24-9
ATS
56%
18-14
64%
21-12
69%
22-10
73%
24-9
TTL
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
