Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ospreys @ Wolves UNF @ WGA

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

7-24  |  Road

85
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 7:30 PM ET
UNF Arena
View Odds Details →

WEST GEORGIA

WOLVESWGA

14-16  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
OSPREYS
100%
📊
WOLVES
0%
OSPREYS --
WOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
WEST GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (West Georgia)
OspreysUNF (-3.5) 0 WolvesWGA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ospreys Cover

30.9%

Wolves Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WGA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WGA)

UNF By 1-7 points

18.6%

UNF By 8-14 points

8.0%

WGA By 1-7 points

27.2%

WGA By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
81
NORTH FLORIDA
86
WEST GEORGIA
Simulated Score
72
NORTH FLORIDA
75
WEST GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolves (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Wolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o160.5 Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 UNF @ WGA 85 - 93
Feb 5, 2026 UNF @ WGA 81 - 73
Jan 8, 2026 WGA @ UNF 85 - 73
Jan 25, 2025 UNF @ WGA 72 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +266.9% more
West Georgia: 6.3 vs North Florida: 1.7
Assists (L5) +43.3% more
West Georgia: 14.2 vs North Florida: 9.9
Steals (L5) +29.4% more
West Georgia: 6.4 vs North Florida: 5.0
Rebounding (L5) +17.1% more
West Georgia: 36.8 vs North Florida: 31.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNF Score 81.0 85
WGA Score 86.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 29.3 42.0 / 23.0
Assists 14.2 / 9.9 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 6.3 / 1.7 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 40.6 53.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 70.1 74.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 36.8 / 31.4 41.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.4 / 5.0 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 11.6 12.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
WGA Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNF
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
WGA Advantage
21-9-0 (70.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
WGA
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WGA
UNF
WGA
UNF
ML
58% 18-13
69% 22-10
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
ATS
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
TTL
55% 17-14
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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