YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
15-16 | Road
53
ROBERT MORRIS
COLONIALSRMU
21-10 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
COLONIALS
0%
PENGUINS
--
COLONIALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ROBERT MORRIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Robert Morris)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RMU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RMU)
YSU By 1-7 points
10.7%
YSU By 8-14 points
3.3%
RMU By 1-7 points
23.0%
RMU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Youngstown State
64
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Robert Morris
74
ROBERT MORRIS
Simulated Score
Youngstown State
71
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Robert Morris
75
ROBERT MORRIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Colonials
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colonials
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Colonials (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Colonials (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
YSU @ RMU
53 - 68
Feb 7, 2026
RMU @ YSU
72 - 66
Dec 17, 2025
YSU @ RMU
77 - 80
Mar 11, 2025
YSU @ RMU
78 - 89
Jan 22, 2025
RMU @ YSU
72 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.8% more
Robert Morris: 6.4
vs
Youngstown State: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+26.6% more
Robert Morris: 19.0
vs
Youngstown State: 15.0
Rebounding (L5)
+19.9% more
Robert Morris: 36.9
vs
Youngstown State: 30.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Robert Morris: 40.3%
vs
Youngstown State: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YSU Score
64.0
53
RMU Score
74.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.3 / 31.7
48.0 / 22.0
Assists
19.0 / 15.0
14.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.4
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.0 / 45.1
48.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
72.4 / 70.1
62.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 30.7
41.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.4 / 5.0
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 10.1
15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
RMU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
RMU
Advantage
19-11-1
(63.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
RMU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RMU
YSU
RMU
YSU
ML
36%
12-21
57%
17-13
56%
18-14
67%
20-10
ATS
55%
18-15
47%
14-16
56%
18-14
67%
20-10
TTL
55%
18-15
60%
18-12
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
