COLORADO STATE
RAMSCSU
19-10 | Road
82
NEW MEXICO
LOBOSUNM
22-7 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
LOBOS
100%
RAMS
--
LOBOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Colorado State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)
CSU By 1-7 points
23.0%
CSU By 8-14 points
27.2%
UNM By 1-7 points
10.7%
UNM By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado State
71
COLORADO STATE
New Mexico
61
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
Colorado State
76
COLORADO STATE
New Mexico
81
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rams
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lobos
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rams (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Lobos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
CSU @ UNM
82 - 74
Jan 6, 2026
UNM @ CSU
80 - 70
Feb 5, 2025
CSU @ UNM
65 - 87
Dec 28, 2024
UNM @ CSU
76 - 68
Mar 15, 2024
CSU @ UNM
61 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.8% more
Colorado State: 17.0
vs
New Mexico: 13.0
Turnovers (L5)
+13.3% more
Colorado State: 10.9
vs
New Mexico: 9.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.7%
Colorado State: 79.6%
vs
New Mexico: 68.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.5%
Colorado State: 53.6%
vs
New Mexico: 44.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSU Score
71.0
82
UNM Score
61.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 42.1
24.0 / 44.0
Assists
13.0 / 17.0
12.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.0 / 1.9
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 53.6
46.0 / 59.0
Free Throw %
68.9 / 79.6
60.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 31.5
29.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.9 / 4.1
16.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 10.9
12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
UNM
Advantage
26-11-0
(70.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
UNM
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.7
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3%
Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
CSU
UNM
CSU
ML
57%
21-16
56%
19-15
74%
25-9
65%
20-11
ATS
57%
21-16
62%
21-13
74%
25-9
65%
20-11
TTL
41%
15-22
56%
19-15
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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