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STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

18-11  |  Road

86
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Purcell Pavilion
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

13-16  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINAL
100%
📊
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
CARDINAL --
FIGHTING IRISH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Notre Dame)
CardinalSTAN (-3.5) 0 Fighting IrishND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinal Cover

24.2%

Fighting Irish Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ND -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

STAN By 1-7 points

15.3%

STAN By 8-14 points

5.8%

ND By 1-7 points

26.2%

ND By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
72
STANFORD
79
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
68
STANFORD
72
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Irish Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Fighting Irish (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 STAN @ ND 86 - 78
Dec 30, 2025 ND @ STAN 47 - 40
Mar 5, 2025 STAN @ ND 54 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.4% more
Notre Dame: 12.1 vs Stanford: 9.0
Rebounding (L5) +10.2% more
Notre Dame: 35.3 vs Stanford: 32.0
Blocks (L5) +64.5% more
Stanford: 3.6 vs Notre Dame: 1.3
Steals (L5) +51.0% more
Stanford: 8.0 vs Notre Dame: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 72.0 86
ND Score 79.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 39.8 41.0 / 52.0
Assists 13.2 / 12.4 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.3 / 3.6 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 46.1 43.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 67.3 / 82.9 89.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 32.0 32.0 / 27.0
Steals 3.9 / 8.0 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 9.0 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN Advantage
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
STAN
ND
STAN
ML
65% 20-11
48% 16-17
77% 24-7
50% 16-16
ATS
55% 17-14
48% 16-17
77% 24-7
50% 16-16
TTL
68% 21-10
55% 18-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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