Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Boilermakers @ Wildcats PUR @ NU

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

22-7  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 8:30 PM ET
Welsh-Ryan Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

13-16  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
BOILERMAKERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BoilermakersPUR (-3.5) 0 WildcatsNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boilermakers Cover

15.9%

Wildcats Cover

84.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NU +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

PUR By 1-7 points

23.0%

PUR By 8-14 points

27.2%

NU By 1-7 points

10.7%

NU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
85
PURDUE
75
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
77
PURDUE
72
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 NU @ PUR 68 - 81
Mar 4, 2026 PUR @ NU 70 - 66
Jan 5, 2025 NU @ PUR 61 - 79
Jan 31, 2024 NU @ PUR 96 - 105
Dec 1, 2023 PUR @ NU 88 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +10.9% more
Purdue: 17.9 vs Northwestern: 15.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Purdue: 41.7% vs Northwestern: 35.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Purdue: 48.1% vs Northwestern: 44.9%
Blocks (L5) +188.8% more
Northwestern: 4.7 vs Purdue: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 85.0 70
NU Score 75.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 41.7 44.0 / 38.0
Assists 15.9 / 17.9 14.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.7 / 1.6 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 48.1 51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 73.2 / 71.4 92.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 30.8 15.0 / 29.0
Steals 8.2 / 5.4 7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 7.3 7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
99%MONEY1%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
NU
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
NU Advantage
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
PUR
NU
PUR
ML
47% 16-18
67% 26-13
68% 23-11
66% 25-13
ATS
50% 17-17
64% 25-14
68% 23-11
66% 25-13
TTL
53% 18-16
51% 20-19
100% 34-0
100% 38-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 7 hours, 24 minutes ago
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 14 hours, 7 minutes ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 7 hours ago
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
yahoo 2 days, 13 hours ago
Kentucky's AP Poll Exit Exposes Uphill Battle for National Respe…
yahoo 3 days, 1 hour ago