MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
11-18 | Road
45
WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
20-9 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
TERRAPINS
100%
BADGERS
0%
TERRAPINS
--
BADGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Wisconsin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIS -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)
MD By 1-7 points
16.9%
MD By 8-14 points
6.8%
WIS By 1-7 points
26.8%
WIS By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland
70
MARYLAND
Wisconsin
76
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
Maryland
68
MARYLAND
Wisconsin
73
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Badgers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Badgers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Badgers (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Badgers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
MD @ WIS
45 - 78
Jan 29, 2025
WIS @ MD
68 - 76
Mar 14, 2024
MD @ WIS
56 - 87
Feb 20, 2024
MD @ WIS
70 - 74
Jan 25, 2023
WIS @ MD
55 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+49.2% more
Wisconsin: 5.3
vs
Maryland: 3.5
Assists (L5)
+35.7% more
Wisconsin: 15.9
vs
Maryland: 11.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.5%
Wisconsin: 85.0%
vs
Maryland: 73.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.9%
Wisconsin: 38.6%
vs
Maryland: 29.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MD Score
70.0
45
WIS Score
76.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 29.7
42.0 / 29.0
Assists
15.9 / 11.7
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.4 / 4.5
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 40.4
48.0 / 30.0
Free Throw %
85.0 / 73.6
85.0 / 40.0
Rebounding
35.8 / 39.9
36.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.3 / 3.5
8.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
8.3 / 13.7
3.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
WIS
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
WIS
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
MD
WIS
MD
ML
60%
21-14
70%
23-10
69%
24-11
67%
22-11
ATS
51%
18-17
64%
21-12
69%
24-11
67%
22-11
TTL
57%
20-15
64%
21-12
100%
35-0
100%
33-0
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