RICE
OWLSRICE
12-17 | Road
58
NORTH TEXAS
MEAN GREENUNT
17-13 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
100%
MEAN GREEN
0%
OWLS
--
MEAN GREEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (North Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)
RICE By 1-7 points
15.3%
RICE By 8-14 points
5.8%
UNT By 1-7 points
26.2%
UNT By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Rice
71
RICE
North Texas
78
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
Rice
61
RICE
North Texas
68
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mean Green
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mean Green
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mean Green (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Mean Green (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
RICE @ UNT
58 - 62
Feb 4, 2026
UNT @ RICE
83 - 86
Feb 11, 2025
UNT @ RICE
67 - 61
Jan 8, 2025
RICE @ UNT
59 - 81
Mar 9, 2024
UNT @ RICE
71 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+10.9% more
North Texas: 6.9
vs
Rice: 6.2
Blocks (L5)
+37.7% more
Rice: 3.6
vs
North Texas: 2.2
Turnovers (L5)
+31.7% more
Rice: 12.4
vs
North Texas: 8.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.8%
Rice: 73.1%
vs
North Texas: 65.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RICE Score
71.0
58
UNT Score
78.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 34.4
25.0 / 32.0
Assists
11.9 / 12.4
5.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.6
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 44.0
43.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
65.3 / 73.1
57.0 / 40.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 33.0
36.0 / 44.0
Steals
6.9 / 6.2
10.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 12.4
9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICE
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.4
UNT
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICE
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.4
UNT
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +2.4
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
RICE
UNT
RICE
ML
70%
23-10
53%
16-14
59%
19-13
53%
16-14
ATS
52%
17-16
60%
18-12
59%
19-13
53%
16-14
TTL
67%
22-11
77%
23-7
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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