Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hawks @ Wildcats JOES @ DAV

SAINT JOSEPH'S

HAWKSJOES

19-10  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 7:00 PM ET
John M. Belk Arena
View Odds Details →

DAVIDSON

WILDCATSDAV

18-11  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
HAWKS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DAVIDSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Davidson)
HawksJOES (-3.5) 0 WildcatsDAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

46.0%

Wildcats Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAV -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAV)

JOES By 1-7 points

24.3%

JOES By 8-14 points

13.7%

DAV By 1-7 points

26.2%

DAV By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
SAINT JOSEPH'S
68
DAVIDSON
Simulated Score
70
SAINT JOSEPH'S
75
DAVIDSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 DAV @ JOES 58 - 70
Mar 4, 2026 JOES @ DAV 70 - 67
Jan 3, 2026 DAV @ JOES 62 - 56
Jan 21, 2025 JOES @ DAV 78 - 61
Mar 9, 2024 DAV @ JOES 71 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.8% more
Davidson: 12.0 vs Saint Joseph's: 9.7
Blocks (L5) +10.5% more
Davidson: 5.5 vs Saint Joseph's: 5.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Davidson: 36.6% vs Saint Joseph's: 27.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Davidson: 45.1% vs Saint Joseph's: 42.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JOES Score 67.0 70
DAV Score 68.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 27.5 29.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.6 / 16.0 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.5 / 5.0 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 42.8 42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 60.4 / 67.4 50.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 38.1 27.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.3 / 6.1 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 9.7 3.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JOES Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
DAV
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JOES Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
DAV
13-17-2 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.3
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAV
JOES
DAV
JOES
ML
64% 21-12
51% 18-17
58% 19-14
61% 20-13
ATS
48% 16-17
60% 21-14
58% 19-14
61% 20-13
TTL
52% 17-16
54% 19-16
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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