Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dukes @ Rams DUQ @ URI

DUQUESNE

DUKESDUQ

16-13  |  Road

52
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Thomas M. Ryan Center
View Odds Details →

RHODE ISLAND

RAMSURI

15-14  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
0%
📊
RAMS
100%
DUKES --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DUQUESNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Duquesne)
DukesDUQ (-3.5) 0 RamsURI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

61.8%

Rams Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUQ -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUQ)

DUQ By 1-7 points

27.2%

DUQ By 8-14 points

20.1%

URI By 1-7 points

21.6%

URI By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
77
DUQUESNE
74
RHODE ISLAND
Simulated Score
67
DUQUESNE
75
RHODE ISLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dukes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dukes (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 URI @ DUQ 61 - 67
Mar 4, 2026 DUQ @ URI 52 - 64
Feb 1, 2026 URI @ DUQ 61 - 76
Dec 31, 2024 URI @ DUQ 55 - 67
Feb 3, 2024 DUQ @ URI 85 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +9.8% more
Duquesne: 6.4 vs Rhode Island: 5.8
Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Duquesne: 42.5% vs Rhode Island: 36.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Duquesne: 30.5% vs Rhode Island: 28.7%
Rebounding (L5) +16.7% more
Rhode Island: 36.0 vs Duquesne: 30.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score 77.0 52
URI Score 74.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 30.5 12.0 / 25.0
Assists 12.2 / 12.9 9.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.4 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 36.0 / 42.5 47.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 69.9 82.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 30.8 31.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.8 / 6.4 15.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 10.6 15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
URI
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ Advantage
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
URI
13-18-1 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +1.6
URI
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
URI
DUQ
URI
DUQ
ML
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
59% 19-13
58% 18-13
ATS
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
59% 19-13
58% 18-13
TTL
56% 18-14
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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