Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bonnies @ Revolutionaries SBU @ GW

ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

15-14  |  Road

82
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Charles E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGE WASHINGTON

REVOLUTIONARIESGW

16-13  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
0%
📊
REVOLUTIONARIES
100%
BONNIES --
REVOLUTIONARIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BonniesSBU (-3.5) 0 RevolutionariesGW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bonnies Cover

30.9%

Revolutionaries Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GW +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GW)

SBU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SBU By 8-14 points

23.0%

GW By 1-7 points

18.6%

GW By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
ST. BONAVENTURE
71
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
74
ST. BONAVENTURE
69
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bonnies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bonnies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Revolutionaries (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Bonnies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 SBU @ GW 82 - 91
Feb 9, 2025 GW @ SBU 62 - 52
Mar 6, 2024 SBU @ GW 75 - 86
Feb 19, 2023 GW @ SBU 83 - 81
Feb 26, 2021 GW @ SBU 41 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.0% more
St. Bonaventure: 4.9 vs George Washington: 3.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
St. Bonaventure: 40.4% vs George Washington: 35.1%
Turnovers (L5) +47.3% more
George Washington: 14.9 vs St. Bonaventure: 10.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
George Washington: 68.8% vs St. Bonaventure: 63.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SBU Score 76.0 82
GW Score 71.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 40.4 38.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.2 / 15.8 9.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.9 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 46.6 46.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 63.7 69.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 36.9 38.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.2 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 10.1 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
GW Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
GW Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GW
SBU
GW
SBU
ML
63% 22-13
59% 20-14
60% 21-14
61% 20-13
ATS
69% 24-11
50% 17-17
60% 21-14
61% 20-13
TTL
60% 21-14
38% 13-21
100% 35-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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