TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
18-11 | Road
85
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
21-8 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
LONGHORNS
100%
RAZORBACKS
0%
LONGHORNS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
TEX By 1-7 points
20.1%
TEX By 8-14 points
9.3%
ARK By 1-7 points
27.4%
ARK By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
78
TEXAS
Arkansas
82
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Texas
73
TEXAS
Arkansas
78
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Razorbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Razorbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u164.5
Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
TEX @ ARK
85 - 105
Feb 26, 2025
TEX @ ARK
81 - 86
Feb 5, 2025
ARK @ TEX
78 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+89.4% more
Arkansas: 15.0
vs
Texas: 7.9
Steals (L5)
+49.3% more
Arkansas: 6.8
vs
Texas: 4.6
Turnovers (L5)
+24.7% more
Texas: 10.4
vs
Arkansas: 7.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.2%
Texas: 82.7%
vs
Arkansas: 72.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
78.0
85
ARK Score
82.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 39.1
58.0 / 38.0
Assists
15.0 / 7.9
21.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.4
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 48.1
58.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
72.6 / 82.7
80.0 / 52.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 33.9
35.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.8 / 4.6
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
7.8 / 10.4
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
TEX
ARK
TEX
ML
68%
25-12
58%
21-15
81%
25-6
56%
19-15
ATS
70%
26-11
56%
20-16
81%
25-6
56%
19-15
TTL
57%
21-16
64%
23-13
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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