Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buckeyes @ Nittany Lions OSU @ PSU

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

18-11  |  Road

94
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 7:30 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

12-17  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKEYES
0%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
100%
BUCKEYES --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BuckeyesOSU (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buckeyes Cover

46.0%

Nittany Lions Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PSU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

OSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

OSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

PSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

PSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
64
OHIO STATE
63
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
69
OHIO STATE
76
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buckeyes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 OSU @ PSU 94 - 62
Jan 26, 2026 PSU @ OSU 78 - 84
Jan 30, 2025 OSU @ PSU 83 - 64
Jan 20, 2024 PSU @ OSU 67 - 79
Dec 9, 2023 OSU @ PSU 80 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.2% more
Ohio State: 2.5 vs Penn State: 1.9
Rebounding (L5) +10.2% more
Ohio State: 30.3 vs Penn State: 27.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Ohio State: 39.0% vs Penn State: 36.3%
Steals (L5) +55.4% more
Penn State: 5.9 vs Ohio State: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 64.0 94
PSU Score 63.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 39.0 42.0 / 70.0
Assists 11.6 / 10.1 11.0 / 22.0
Blocks 1.9 / 2.5 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 52.3 / 47.3 39.0 / 67.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 71.8 83.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 27.2 / 30.3 14.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.9 / 3.8 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 9.0 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
OSU
PSU
OSU
ML
72% 23-9
53% 18-16
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
ATS
72% 23-9
59% 20-14
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
TTL
66% 21-11
56% 19-15
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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