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MIAMI

HURRICANESMIA

23-6  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

19-10  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
HURRICANES --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (SMU)
HurricanesMIA (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hurricanes Cover

42.1%

Mustangs Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

MIA By 1-7 points

23.0%

MIA By 8-14 points

12.2%

SMU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SMU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MIAMI
67
SMU
Simulated Score
70
MIAMI
78
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 MIA @ SMU 77 - 69
Jan 18, 2025 SMU @ MIA 117 - 74
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
SMU: 39.0% vs Miami: 36.4%
Steals (L5) +54.7% more
Miami: 9.4 vs SMU: 4.3
Blocks (L5) +42.0% more
Miami: 3.5 vs SMU: 2.0
Turnovers (L5) +19.1% more
Miami: 11.9 vs SMU: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 65.0 77
SMU Score 67.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 36.4 33.0 / 61.0
Assists 14.8 / 13.8 12.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.5 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 49.7 41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 66.0 / 66.7 82.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 36.4 34.0 / 37.0
Steals 4.3 / 9.4 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 11.9 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
SMU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
18-15-1 (54.6%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +0.4
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
MIA
SMU
MIA
ML
59% 20-14
63% 22-13
73% 24-9
64% 21-12
ATS
62% 21-13
63% 22-13
73% 24-9
64% 21-12
TTL
56% 19-15
63% 22-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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