Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bluejays @ Bulldogs CREI @ BUT

CREIGHTON

BLUEJAYSCREI

14-16  |  Road

76
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 6:00 PM ET
Hinkle Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

15-14  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
BLUEJAYS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BLUEJAYS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BUTLER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Butler)
BluejaysCREI (-3.5) 0 BulldogsBUT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bluejays Cover

15.9%

Bulldogs Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUT -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUT)

CREI By 1-7 points

10.7%

CREI By 8-14 points

3.3%

BUT By 1-7 points

23.0%

BUT By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
74
CREIGHTON
84
BUTLER
Simulated Score
76
CREIGHTON
70
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bluejays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bluejays (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 CREI @ BUT 76 - 59
Dec 30, 2025 BUT @ CREI 85 - 89
Mar 8, 2025 BUT @ CREI 74 - 87
Jan 11, 2025 CREI @ BUT 80 - 76
Feb 17, 2024 CREI @ BUT 79 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Butler: 45.0% vs Creighton: 42.6%
Blocks (L5) +45.0% more
Creighton: 3.0 vs Butler: 1.7
Turnovers (L5) +17.7% more
Creighton: 11.9 vs Butler: 9.8
Steals (L5) +8.1% more
Creighton: 4.7 vs Butler: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CREI Score 74.0 76
BUT Score 84.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 35.8 17.0 / 36.0
Assists 13.7 / 14.6 12.0 / 18.0
Blocks 1.7 / 3.0 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 42.6 41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 80.0 88.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 34.4 34.0 / 37.0
Steals 4.3 / 4.7 6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 11.9 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CREI
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -2.9
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CREI
11-22-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -2.9
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CREI
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: +0.1
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
CREI
BUT
CREI
ML
62% 20-12
52% 17-16
65% 20-11
70% 21-9
ATS
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
65% 20-11
70% 21-9
TTL
50% 16-16
52% 17-16
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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