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VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

28-19-14  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Mar 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

35-20-6  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Adin Hill
GOALTENDER

Adin Hill

#33 | Goaltender
@
Moritz Seider
GOALTENDER

Moritz Seider

#53 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Adin Hill None-None 2.89 0.885 --
Moritz Seider None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.89 GAA --
0.885 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
RED WINGS
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
RED WINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 Red WingsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

15.9%

Red Wings Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

VGK By 1 goal

6.6%

VGK By 2-3 goals

3.7%

DET By 1 goal

17.5%

DET By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VEGAS
3
DETROIT
Simulated Score
2
VEGAS
3
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Wings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wings Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Wings (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Red Wings (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 VGK @ DET 4 - 3
Nov 4, 2025 DET @ VGK 0 - 1
Mar 22, 2025 DET @ VGK 3 - 6
Mar 16, 2025 VGK @ DET 0 - 3
Mar 9, 2024 DET @ VGK 3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +20.4% more
Vegas: 24.2 vs Detroit: 19.3
Takeaways (L5) +18.4% more
Vegas: 4.9 vs Detroit: 4.0
Blocked Shots (L5) +17.3% more
Vegas: 14.5 vs Detroit: 12.0
Power Play % (L5) +11.6%
Vegas: 22.6% vs Detroit: 11.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 1.0 4
DET Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
VGK
DET
VGK
ML
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-3
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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