PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
17-14 | Road
56
GREEN BAY
PHOENIXGB
17-14 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
100%
PHOENIX
0%
MASTODONS
--
PHOENIX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Green Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)
PFW By 1-7 points
24.3%
PFW By 8-14 points
13.7%
GB By 1-7 points
26.2%
GB By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
76
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Green Bay
77
GREEN BAY
Simulated Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
70
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Green Bay
73
GREEN BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phoenix
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phoenix
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phoenix (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Phoenix (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.0
Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u145.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
PFW @ GB
56 - 64
Feb 12, 2026
PFW @ GB
59 - 76
Jan 1, 2026
GB @ PFW
72 - 54
Feb 8, 2025
GB @ PFW
74 - 89
Dec 29, 2024
PFW @ GB
83 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+20.7% more
Green Bay: 14.1
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 11.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.5%
Green Bay: 85.9%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 71.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Green Bay: 51.5%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 46.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Green Bay: 37.7%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 34.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PFW Score
76.0
56
GB Score
77.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 34.5
28.0 / 21.0
Assists
14.1 / 11.7
16.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.3 / 2.4
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
51.5 / 46.5
47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
85.9 / 71.5
75.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 31.9
31.0 / 34.0
Steals
4.8 / 7.6
3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 10.2
7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
GB
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
GB
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
GB
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
PFW
GB
PFW
ML
48%
16-17
59%
19-13
67%
22-11
74%
23-8
ATS
52%
17-16
62%
20-12
67%
22-11
74%
23-8
TTL
58%
19-14
59%
19-13
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
