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DALLAS

STARSDAL

37-14-9  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Saddledome
View Odds Details →

CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

24-28-7  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
@
Devin Cooley
GOALTENDER

Devin Cooley

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Casey DeSmith None-None 1.00 0.952 --
Devin Cooley None-None 3.55 0.889 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 3.55
0.952 Ldr Save % 0.889
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
📊
FLAMES
0%
STARS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Calgary)
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 FlamesCGY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

30.9%

Flames Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)

DAL By 1 goal

12.1%

DAL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

CGY By 1 goal

19.7%

CGY By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DALLAS
4
CALGARY
Simulated Score
3
DALLAS
5
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flames Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flames (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 CGY @ DAL 3 - 4
Mar 3, 2026 DAL @ CGY 6 - 1
Nov 22, 2025 DAL @ CGY 2 - 3
Mar 27, 2025 DAL @ CGY 5 - 2
Mar 6, 2025 CGY @ DAL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +28.1% more
Calgary: 4.3 vs Dallas: 3.4
Power Play % (L5) +2.3%
Calgary: 34.3% vs Dallas: 32.0%
Hits (L5) +17.7% more
Dallas: 21.2 vs Calgary: 17.4
Blocked Shots (L5) +11.1% more
Dallas: 17.4 vs Calgary: 15.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 3.0 6
CGY Score 4.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
68%MONEY32%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
DAL
CGY
DAL
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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