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WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

16-44  |  Road

109
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

31-28  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
MAGIC
0%
WIZARDS --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Orlando)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

2.3%

Magic Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)

WSH By 1-7 points

1.7%

WSH By 8-14 points

0.3%

ORL By 1-7 points

8.0%

ORL By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
110
WASHINGTON
130
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
105
WASHINGTON
118
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Magic Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Magic Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Magic (-16) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Magic (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o227.5 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 WSH @ ORL 131 - 136
Mar 3, 2026 WSH @ ORL 109 - 126
Jan 6, 2026 ORL @ WSH 112 - 120
Nov 1, 2025 ORL @ WSH 125 - 94
Apr 3, 2025 ORL @ WSH 109 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +19.0% more
Orlando: 42.3 vs Washington: 35.6
Assists (L5) +8.2% more
Orlando: 23.8 vs Washington: 22.0
Blocks (L5) +11.2% more
Washington: 5.5 vs Orlando: 4.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Washington: 42.2% vs Orlando: 32.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 110.0 109
ORL Score 130.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 42.2 40.0 / 22.0
Assists 23.8 / 22.0 33.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.9 / 5.5 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 47.4 55.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 79.0 86.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 42.3 / 35.6 38.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.9 / 9.6 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 14.3 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
ORL Advantage
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
WSH
ORL
WSH
ML
61% 65-42
70% 112-49
56% 51-40
47% 39-44
ATS
64% 68-38-1
69% 111-49-1
56% 51-40
47% 39-44
TTL
57% 61-46
74% 119-41-1
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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