PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
34-26 | Road
114
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
14-48 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
KINGS
0%
SUNS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
PHX By 1-7 points
10.7%
PHX By 8-14 points
3.3%
SAC By 1-7 points
23.0%
SAC By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
121
PHOENIX
Sacramento
131
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Phoenix
114
PHOENIX
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o224.0
Loss
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim
u224.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
PHX @ SAC
114 - 103
Jan 2, 2026
SAC @ PHX
102 - 129
Nov 26, 2025
PHX @ SAC
112 - 100
Oct 22, 2025
SAC @ PHX
116 - 120
Apr 13, 2025
PHX @ SAC
98 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+35.7% more
Sacramento: 27.9
vs
Phoenix: 20.6
Blocks (L5)
+25.7% more
Sacramento: 5.5
vs
Phoenix: 4.4
Turnovers (L5)
+10.3% more
Sacramento: 13.9
vs
Phoenix: 12.6
Rebounding (L5)
+10.0% more
Sacramento: 46.7
vs
Phoenix: 42.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
121.0
114
SAC Score
131.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.6 / 35.2
26.0 / 39.0
Assists
27.9 / 20.6
25.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.4
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 40.7
46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
84.6 / 80.7
78.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
46.7 / 42.4
40.0 / 53.0
Steals
8.2 / 8.5
11.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 12.6
14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
PHX
SAC
PHX
ML
55%
55-45
57%
60-45
61%
50-32
51%
45-43
ATS
54%
52-45-3
58%
59-43-3
61%
50-32
51%
45-43
TTL
58%
57-42-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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