Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Hornets DAL @ CHA

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

21-39  |  Road

90
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

30-31  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
HORNETS
0%
MAVERICKS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Charlotte)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 HornetsCHA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

42.1%

Hornets Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)

DAL By 1-7 points

23.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

12.2%

CHA By 1-7 points

26.8%

CHA By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
121
DALLAS
123
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
105
DALLAS
118
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hornets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hornets (+13) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o226.0 Loss
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim u226.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 DAL @ CHA 90 - 117
Jan 29, 2026 CHA @ DAL 123 - 121
Oct 11, 2025 CHA @ DAL 120 - 116
Feb 27, 2025 CHA @ DAL 96 - 103
Jan 20, 2025 DAL @ CHA 105 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +73.9% more
Charlotte: 10.0 vs Dallas: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +25.9% more
Charlotte: 3.4 vs Dallas: 2.7
Assists (L5) +22.2% more
Charlotte: 27.9 vs Dallas: 22.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.1%
Charlotte: 42.4% vs Dallas: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 121.0 90
CHA Score 123.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.4 / 32.4 39.0 / 14.0
Assists 27.9 / 22.8 32.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.7 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 46.0 48.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 71.0 68.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 49.7 / 45.4 49.0 / 42.0
Steals 10.0 / 5.7 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 17.0 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
CHA Advantage
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
DAL
CHA
DAL
ML
61% 60-39
62% 63-39
48% 40-44
54% 44-37
ATS
60% 59-40
67% 68-34
48% 40-44
54% 44-37
TTL
58% 57-42
59% 60-41-1
100% 84-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
nypost 0 minutes ago
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 0 minutes ago
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 0 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 2 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 5 hours, 38 minutes ago