UALBANY
GREAT DANESUALB
11-19 | Road
56
VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
19-11 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
GREAT DANES
100%
CATAMOUNTS
0%
GREAT DANES
--
CATAMOUNTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
VERMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Vermont)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVM -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVM)
UALB By 1-7 points
4.8%
UALB By 8-14 points
1.1%
UVM By 1-7 points
15.3%
UVM By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UAlbany
66
UALBANY
Vermont
81
VERMONT
Simulated Score
UAlbany
59
UALBANY
Vermont
75
VERMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o136.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
UALB @ UVM
56 - 69
Jan 19, 2026
UVM @ UALB
68 - 75
Mar 4, 2025
UALB @ UVM
71 - 79
Feb 8, 2025
UVM @ UALB
68 - 62
Mar 9, 2024
UALB @ UVM
72 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Vermont: 71.9%
vs
UAlbany: 68.3%
Steals (L5)
+32.3% more
UAlbany: 6.3
vs
Vermont: 4.2
Turnovers (L5)
+30.6% more
UAlbany: 13.0
vs
Vermont: 9.0
Assists (L5)
+20.2% more
UAlbany: 14.9
vs
Vermont: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UALB Score
66.0
56
UVM Score
81.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 37.6
38.0 / 29.0
Assists
11.9 / 14.9
13.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.8
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 51.1
42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
71.9 / 68.3
72.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
35.8 / 34.7
29.0 / 32.0
Steals
4.2 / 6.3
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 13.0
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UALB
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UVM
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UALB
11-18-0
(37.9%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UVM
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UALB
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +0.3
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVM
UALB
UVM
UALB
ML
56%
19-15
55%
17-14
65%
22-12
71%
22-9
ATS
62%
21-13
77%
24-7
65%
22-12
72%
23-9
TTL
47%
16-18
61%
19-12
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
