Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Horned Frogs @ Red Raiders TCU @ TTU

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

19-10  |  Road

73
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
United Supermarkets Arena
View Odds Details →

TEXAS TECH

RED RAIDERSTTU

22-7  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
0%
📊
RED RAIDERS
100%
HORNED FROGS --
RED RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Horned FrogsTCU (-3.5) 0 Red RaidersTTU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Horned Frogs Cover

46.0%

Red Raiders Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TTU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

TCU By 1-7 points

26.2%

TCU By 8-14 points

16.9%

TTU By 1-7 points

24.3%

TTU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
TCU
78
TEXAS TECH
Simulated Score
67
TCU
75
TEXAS TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Horned Frogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Raiders (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Red Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 TCU @ TTU 73 - 65
Feb 18, 2025 TTU @ TCU 66 - 69
Jan 29, 2025 TCU @ TTU 57 - 71
Feb 20, 2024 TCU @ TTU 81 - 82
Jan 30, 2024 TTU @ TCU 78 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +65.9% more
TCU: 10.2 vs Texas Tech: 3.5
Blocks (L5) +47.8% more
Texas Tech: 5.5 vs TCU: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +30.8% more
Texas Tech: 12.3 vs TCU: 9.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.5%
Texas Tech: 43.5% vs TCU: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 79.0 73
TTU Score 78.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.5 / 31.0 34.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.7 / 16.3 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 5.5 / 3.7 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 52.1 / 41.4 45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 69.0 75.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 37.5 25.0 / 39.0
Steals 3.5 / 10.2 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 9.4 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
TTU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
TTU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
TTU
15-19-0
O: 44.1% / U: 55.9% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
TCU
TTU
TCU
ML
62% 21-13
74% 26-9
71% 22-9
63% 19-11
ATS
65% 22-12
74% 26-9
71% 22-9
63% 19-11
TTL
59% 20-14
66% 23-12
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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