Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / River Hawks @ Black Bears UML @ ME

UMASS LOWELL

RIVER HAWKSUML

13-17  |  Road

67
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 6:00 PM ET
Skip Chappelle Court in Memorial Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

MAINE

BLACK BEARSME

8-22  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
RIVER HAWKS
0%
📊
BLACK BEARS
100%
RIVER HAWKS --
BLACK BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MAINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
River HawksUML (-3.5) 0 Black BearsME (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

River Hawks Cover

46.0%

Black Bears Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ME +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ME)

UML By 1-7 points

26.2%

UML By 8-14 points

16.9%

ME By 1-7 points

24.3%

ME By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
66
UMASS LOWELL
65
MAINE
Simulated Score
70
UMASS LOWELL
75
MAINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI River Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Black Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Black Bears (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Black Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 UML @ ME 67 - 56
Jan 31, 2026 ME @ UML 77 - 91
Mar 8, 2025 UML @ ME 64 - 72
Mar 4, 2025 UML @ ME 70 - 71
Jan 23, 2025 ME @ UML 86 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +29.0% more
UMass Lowell: 36.0 vs Maine: 25.6
Blocks (L5) +15.4% more
UMass Lowell: 1.9 vs Maine: 1.6
Steals (L5) +101.9% more
Maine: 8.4 vs UMass Lowell: 4.2
Turnovers (L5) +23.5% more
Maine: 9.8 vs UMass Lowell: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UML Score 66.0 67
ME Score 65.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 29.5 25.0 / 10.0
Assists 13.0 / 12.2 13.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.6 / 1.9 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 44.5 42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 64.3 / 63.1 50.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 25.6 / 36.0 34.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.4 / 4.2 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 8.0 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UML Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
ME
8-24-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UML Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
ME
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.2
ME
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ME
UML
ME
UML
ML
45% 14-17
70% 23-10
52% 16-15
58% 19-14
ATS
55% 17-14
70% 23-10
52% 16-15
58% 19-14
TTL
55% 17-14
58% 19-14
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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