Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Broncos BALL @ WMU

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

10-19  |  Road

74
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
University Arena (MI)
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

BRONCOSWMU

10-19  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
CARDINALS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Western Michigan)
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 BroncosWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

24.2%

Broncos Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WMU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

BALL By 1-7 points

15.3%

BALL By 8-14 points

5.8%

WMU By 1-7 points

26.2%

WMU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
BALL STATE
78
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
68
BALL STATE
72
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 BALL @ WMU 74 - 71
Jan 28, 2025 WMU @ BALL 74 - 71
Mar 2, 2024 WMU @ BALL 78 - 76
Feb 3, 2024 BALL @ WMU 77 - 67
Feb 18, 2023 BALL @ WMU 68 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +3.7%
Western Michigan: 78.4% vs Ball State: 74.7%
Steals (L5) +49.5% more
Ball State: 6.8 vs Western Michigan: 3.4
Assists (L5) +29.6% more
Ball State: 14.4 vs Western Michigan: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 71.0 74
WMU Score 78.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 34.9 32.0 / 38.0
Assists 10.1 / 14.4 9.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.1 / 2.1 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 42.0 41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.4 / 74.7 79.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 37.0 35.0 / 35.0
Steals 3.4 / 6.8 1.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 9.8 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
WMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
WMU Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
BALL
WMU
BALL
ML
60% 18-12
43% 13-17
70% 21-9
62% 18-11
ATS
67% 20-10
67% 20-10
70% 21-9
62% 18-11
TTL
57% 17-13
50% 15-15
100% 30-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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