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MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

13-16  |  Road

74
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Stephen C. O'Connell Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

GATORSFLA

23-6  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
GATORS
0%
BULLDOGS --
GATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Florida)
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 GatorsFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

5.5%

Gators Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FLA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

MSST By 1-7 points

4.0%

MSST By 8-14 points

0.8%

FLA By 1-7 points

13.7%

FLA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
70
MISSISSIPPI STATE
86
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
70
MISSISSIPPI STATE
78
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gators Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gators Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gators (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Gators (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 MSST @ FLA 74 - 108
Feb 11, 2025 FLA @ MSST 81 - 68
Jan 24, 2024 MSST @ FLA 70 - 79
Mar 9, 2023 MSST @ FLA 69 - 68
Jan 21, 2023 FLA @ MSST 61 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +35.0% more
Florida: 17.5 vs Mississippi State: 13.0
Rebounding (L5) +30.9% more
Florida: 42.7 vs Mississippi State: 32.6
Free Throw % (L5) +20.7%
Florida: 77.9% vs Mississippi State: 57.1%
Blocks (L5) +19.3% more
Florida: 5.6 vs Mississippi State: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 70.0 74
FLA Score 86.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.3 / 33.6 36.0 / 35.0
Assists 17.5 / 13.0 25.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.6 / 4.7 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 54.7 / 45.9 55.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 57.1 59.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 32.6 53.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.0 7.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 12.4 5.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
FLA Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
FLA Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
MSST
FLA
MSST
ML
77% 27-8
66% 21-11
63% 22-13
55% 17-14
ATS
69% 24-11
56% 18-14
63% 22-13
55% 17-14
TTL
63% 22-13
59% 19-13
100% 35-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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