Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lopes @ Falcons GCU @ AF

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

18-11  |  Road

86
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Clune Arena
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-26  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
LOPES
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
LOPES --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LopesGCU (-3.5) 0 FalconsAF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lopes Cover

38.2%

Falcons Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AF +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AF)

GCU By 1-7 points

27.2%

GCU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AF By 1-7 points

21.6%

AF By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
72
GRAND CANYON
69
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
78
GRAND CANYON
65
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lopes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Falcons (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Lopes (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 GCU @ AF 86 - 60
Feb 3, 2026 AF @ GCU 57 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +45.7% more
Grand Canyon: 3.7 vs Air Force: 2.0
Free Throw % (L5) +22.2%
Grand Canyon: 80.8% vs Air Force: 58.7%
Rebounding (L5) +13.2% more
Grand Canyon: 36.7 vs Air Force: 31.9
Assists (L5) +14.8% more
Air Force: 13.8 vs Grand Canyon: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GCU Score 72.0 86
AF Score 69.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 35.6 24.0 / 43.0
Assists 13.8 / 12.0 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.7 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 46.8 42.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 58.7 / 80.8 69.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 36.7 24.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.4 / 3.9 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 13.4 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GCU Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
GCU
AF
GCU
ML
81% 26-6
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
ATS
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
TTL
69% 22-10
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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