SAN DIEGO STATE
AZTECSSDSU
19-9 | Road
77
BOISE STATE
BRONCOSBOIS
18-11 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
100%
BRONCOS
0%
AZTECS
--
BRONCOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boise State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)
SDSU By 1-7 points
23.0%
SDSU By 8-14 points
12.2%
BOIS By 1-7 points
26.8%
BOIS By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego State
75
SAN DIEGO STATE
Boise State
77
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
San Diego State
65
SAN DIEGO STATE
Boise State
68
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Broncos
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Broncos (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Broncos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
SDSU @ BOIS
77 - 86
Jan 3, 2026
BOIS @ SDSU
107 - 110
Mar 13, 2025
BOIS @ SDSU
62 - 52
Feb 15, 2025
BOIS @ SDSU
47 - 64
Jan 4, 2025
SDSU @ BOIS
76 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.1%
Boise State: 82.5%
vs
San Diego State: 71.4%
Blocks (L5)
+48.1% more
San Diego State: 4.9
vs
Boise State: 2.5
Steals (L5)
+27.2% more
San Diego State: 5.3
vs
Boise State: 3.9
Assists (L5)
+26.7% more
San Diego State: 15.9
vs
Boise State: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score
75.0
77
BOIS Score
77.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 33.0
48.0 / 38.0
Assists
11.7 / 15.9
9.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.5 / 4.9
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 45.9
52.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
82.5 / 71.4
79.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 35.4
37.0 / 15.0
Steals
3.9 / 5.3
1.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 10.0
17.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
BOIS
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
BOIS
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +5.5
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
SDSU
BOIS
SDSU
ML
50%
16-16
62%
20-12
61%
19-12
72%
23-9
ATS
50%
16-16
69%
22-10
61%
19-12
72%
23-9
TTL
56%
18-14
75%
24-8
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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