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UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

24-5  |  Road

65
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 11:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

15-14  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
REBELS
100%
AGGIES --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 RebelsUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

38.2%

Rebels Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNLV +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

USU By 1-7 points

27.2%

USU By 8-14 points

20.1%

UNLV By 1-7 points

21.6%

UNLV By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
78
UTAH STATE
75
UNLV
Simulated Score
77
UTAH STATE
70
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rebels (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Aggies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UNLV @ USU 60 - 80
Mar 3, 2026 USU @ UNLV 65 - 92
Jan 20, 2026 UNLV @ USU 86 - 76
Mar 13, 2025 UNLV @ USU 58 - 70
Jan 29, 2025 UNLV @ USU 71 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.3% more
Utah State: 16.4 vs UNLV: 14.1
Blocks (L5) +167.0% more
UNLV: 4.9 vs Utah State: 1.9
Turnovers (L5) +20.3% more
UNLV: 10.6 vs Utah State: 8.8
Rebounding (L5) +11.7% more
UNLV: 33.1 vs Utah State: 29.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 78.0 65
UNLV Score 75.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.1 / 40.5 40.0 / 17.0
Assists 14.1 / 16.4 21.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.9 / 1.9 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 46.7 58.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 67.1 / 64.8 82.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 29.6 36.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.4 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 8.8 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
UNLV Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
USU
UNLV
USU
ML
50% 17-17
49% 17-18
59% 20-14
66% 21-11
ATS
65% 22-12
74% 26-9
59% 20-14
67% 22-11
TTL
62% 21-13
51% 18-17
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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