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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

8-21  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 9:00 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

12-17  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
SPARTANS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Fresno State)
SpartansSJSU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

13.6%

Bulldogs Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FRES -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

SJSU By 1-7 points

9.3%

SJSU By 8-14 points

2.7%

FRES By 1-7 points

21.6%

FRES By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
63
SAN JOSÉ STATE
74
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
68
SAN JOSÉ STATE
75
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 SJSU @ FRES 68 - 82
Jan 6, 2026 FRES @ SJSU 70 - 55
Mar 8, 2025 FRES @ SJSU 68 - 92
Feb 4, 2025 SJSU @ FRES 94 - 91
Feb 6, 2024 FRES @ SJSU 69 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.5% more
Fresno State: 9.9 vs San José State: 7.5
Rebounding (L5) +18.2% more
Fresno State: 31.5 vs San José State: 26.6
Blocks (L5) +19.9% more
San José State: 2.7 vs Fresno State: 2.1
Free Throw % (L5) +12.0%
San José State: 80.5% vs Fresno State: 68.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 63.0 68
FRES Score 74.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 38.3 46.0 / 23.0
Assists 11.2 / 12.2 11.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.1 / 2.7 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 45.7 41.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 80.5 79.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 26.6 45.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.4 / 5.7 2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 7.5 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
FRES Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
SJSU
FRES
SJSU
ML
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
74% 23-8
62% 20-12
ATS
75% 24-8
73% 24-9
74% 23-8
62% 20-12
TTL
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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