Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Wildcats WVU @ KSU

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

17-12  |  Road

63
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

11-18  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas State)
MountaineersWVU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

46.0%

Wildcats Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

WVU By 1-7 points

24.3%

WVU By 8-14 points

13.7%

KSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

KSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
72
WEST VIRGINIA
73
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
68
WEST VIRGINIA
72
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 WVU @ KSU 63 - 65
Jan 27, 2026 KSU @ WVU 54 - 59
Jan 25, 2025 WVU @ KSU 60 - 73
Feb 26, 2024 WVU @ KSU 90 - 94
Jan 9, 2024 KSU @ WVU 81 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +39.7% more
Kansas State: 14.6 vs West Virginia: 10.5
Steals (L5) +11.8% more
Kansas State: 7.1 vs West Virginia: 6.4
Assists (L5) +10.7% more
Kansas State: 15.0 vs West Virginia: 13.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Kansas State: 32.0% vs West Virginia: 29.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 72.0 63
KSU Score 73.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 29.8 30.0 / 26.0
Assists 15.0 / 13.6 12.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.7 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 44.2 41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 60.8 / 66.1 76.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 34.1 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.1 / 6.4 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 10.5 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
WVU
KSU
WVU
ML
59% 19-13
63% 22-13
69% 22-10
76% 26-8
ATS
62% 20-12
60% 21-14
69% 22-10
76% 26-8
TTL
47% 15-17
40% 14-21
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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