UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
20-8 | Road
91
NJIT
HIGHLANDERSNJIT
15-15 | Home
52
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
0%
HIGHLANDERS
100%
RETRIEVERS
--
HIGHLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (UMBC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UMBC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)
UMBC By 1-7 points
21.6%
UMBC By 8-14 points
27.4%
NJIT By 1-7 points
9.3%
NJIT By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UMBC
68
UMBC
NJIT
57
NJIT
Simulated Score
UMBC
75
UMBC
NJIT
68
NJIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Retrievers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Retrievers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Retrievers (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Retrievers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
UMBC @ NJIT
91 - 52
Jan 22, 2026
NJIT @ UMBC
74 - 87
Feb 22, 2025
NJIT @ UMBC
91 - 95
Jan 9, 2025
UMBC @ NJIT
87 - 64
Feb 29, 2024
UMBC @ NJIT
79 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+14.7% more
UMBC: 2.8
vs
NJIT: 2.4
Rebounding (L5)
+12.5% more
UMBC: 37.2
vs
NJIT: 32.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.9%
UMBC: 49.8%
vs
NJIT: 40.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.9%
UMBC: 78.2%
vs
NJIT: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score
68.0
91
NJIT Score
57.0
52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.4 / 31.1
15.0 / 44.0
Assists
9.1 / 9.6
7.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.8
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 49.8
32.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
69.3 / 78.2
71.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 37.2
29.0 / 46.0
Steals
8.1 / 4.2
8.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 7.2
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
NJIT
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
NJIT
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
NJIT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NJIT
UMBC
NJIT
UMBC
ML
78%
25-7
58%
18-13
62%
20-12
55%
17-14
ATS
72%
23-9
68%
21-10
62%
20-12
55%
17-14
TTL
47%
15-17
39%
12-19
100%
32-0
100%
31-0