DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
20-9 | Road
65
RICHMOND
SPIDERSRICH
15-14 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
SPIDERS
0%
FLYERS
--
SPIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
RICHMOND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Richmond)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RICH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICH)
DAY By 1-7 points
23.0%
DAY By 8-14 points
12.2%
RICH By 1-7 points
26.8%
RICH By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Dayton
73
DAYTON
Richmond
75
RICHMOND
Simulated Score
Dayton
70
DAYTON
Richmond
78
RICHMOND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spiders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spiders
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spiders (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Spiders (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
DAY @ RICH
65 - 60
Mar 1, 2025
RICH @ DAY
64 - 74
Jan 27, 2024
DAY @ RICH
64 - 69
Jan 28, 2023
RICH @ DAY
60 - 86
Mar 12, 2022
RICH @ DAY
68 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+44.7% more
Dayton: 12.8
vs
Richmond: 7.1
Blocks (L5)
+43.1% more
Dayton: 4.1
vs
Richmond: 2.3
Steals (L5)
+22.2% more
Dayton: 8.6
vs
Richmond: 6.7
Assists (L5)
+17.9% more
Dayton: 16.0
vs
Richmond: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAY Score
73.0
65
RICH Score
75.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 41.8
17.0 / 38.0
Assists
13.1 / 16.0
6.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.3 / 4.1
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.5 / 47.4
38.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 76.4
67.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
28.1 / 29.1
29.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.7 / 8.6
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
7.1 / 12.8
6.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY
Advantage
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
RICH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
RICH
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
RICH
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICH
DAY
RICH
DAY
ML
53%
17-15
65%
24-13
56%
18-14
64%
23-13
ATS
44%
14-18
68%
25-12
56%
18-14
64%
23-13
TTL
56%
18-14
57%
21-16
100%
32-0
100%
36-0
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