Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Patriots @ Rams GMU @ VCU

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

22-7  |  Road

65
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Siegel Center
View Odds Details →

VCU

RAMSVCU

22-7  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
PATRIOTS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
VCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (VCU)
PatriotsGMU (-3.5) 0 RamsVCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

34.5%

Rams Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VCU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VCU)

GMU By 1-7 points

20.1%

GMU By 8-14 points

9.3%

VCU By 1-7 points

27.4%

VCU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
81
GEORGE MASON
85
VCU
Simulated Score
68
GEORGE MASON
72
VCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 GMU @ VCU 65 - 70
Jan 10, 2026 VCU @ GMU 80 - 86
Mar 16, 2025 GMU @ VCU 63 - 68
Feb 22, 2025 GMU @ VCU 54 - 70
Jan 9, 2024 VCU @ GMU 54 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +130.2% more
VCU: 7.8 vs George Mason: 3.4
Blocks (L5) +49.1% more
VCU: 4.1 vs George Mason: 2.8
Rebounding (L5) +23.2% more
VCU: 40.3 vs George Mason: 32.7
Assists (L5) +16.0% more
VCU: 15.3 vs George Mason: 13.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GMU Score 81.0 65
VCU Score 85.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 36.2 35.0 / 32.0
Assists 15.3 / 13.2 5.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.8 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 44.1 44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 71.3 75.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 40.3 / 32.7 32.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.8 / 3.4 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 10.1 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GMU
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
VCU Advantage
28-8-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 9.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GMU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
VCU
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VCU
GMU
VCU
GMU
ML
72% 26-10
55% 18-15
67% 22-11
73% 24-9
ATS
81% 29-7
55% 18-15
67% 22-11
73% 24-9
TTL
58% 21-15
58% 19-14
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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