Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ RedHawks TOL @ M-OH

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

16-13  |  Road

72
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Millett Hall
View Odds Details →

MIAMI (OH)

REDHAWKSM-OH

29-0  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
REDHAWKS
0%
ROCKETS --
REDHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI (OH)
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami (OH))
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 RedHawksM-OH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

46.0%

RedHawks Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around M-OH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (M-OH)

TOL By 1-7 points

24.3%

TOL By 8-14 points

13.7%

M-OH By 1-7 points

26.2%

M-OH By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
TOLEDO
68
MIAMI (OH)
Simulated Score
78
TOLEDO
72
MIAMI (OH)
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI RedHawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI RedHawks (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rockets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 TOL @ M-OH 72 - 74
Jan 9, 2026 M-OH @ TOL 87 - 73
Feb 11, 2025 TOL @ M-OH 80 - 92
Mar 5, 2024 TOL @ M-OH 97 - 63
Jan 5, 2024 M-OH @ TOL 64 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.3% more
Miami (OH): 8.3 vs Toledo: 7.4
Blocks (L5) +37.3% more
Toledo: 3.3 vs Miami (OH): 2.1
Assists (L5) +21.1% more
Toledo: 14.7 vs Miami (OH): 11.6
Free Throw % (L5) +12.6%
Toledo: 79.0% vs Miami (OH): 66.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 67.0 72
M-OH Score 68.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 36.4 38.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.6 / 14.7 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.3 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 49.7 50.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 66.4 / 79.0 57.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 37.1 31.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.2 9.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 7.4 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
M-OH Advantage
32-2-0 (94.1%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
M-OH Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
M-OH
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
TOL
M-OH
TOL
ML
45% 15-18
48% 16-17
41% 13-19
61% 20-13
ATS
61% 20-13
48% 16-17
41% 13-19
61% 20-13
TTL
61% 20-13
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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