Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Commodores @ Rebels VAN @ MISS

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

22-7  |  Road

89
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 9:00 PM ET
The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

12-17  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
0%
📊
REBELS
100%
COMMODORES --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CommodoresVAN (-3.5) 0 RebelsMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commodores Cover

34.5%

Rebels Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MISS +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

VAN By 1-7 points

27.4%

VAN By 8-14 points

21.6%

MISS By 1-7 points

20.1%

MISS By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
80
VANDERBILT
76
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
63
VANDERBILT
75
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Commodores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rebels (+7) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 VAN @ MISS 89 - 86
Jan 31, 2026 MISS @ VAN 68 - 71
Feb 22, 2025 MISS @ VAN 72 - 77
Jan 13, 2024 VAN @ MISS 56 - 69
Feb 4, 2023 MISS @ VAN 71 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.3%
Vanderbilt: 83.6% vs Ole Miss: 77.3%
Steals (L5) +56.4% more
Ole Miss: 7.5 vs Vanderbilt: 4.8
Assists (L5) +11.8% more
Ole Miss: 16.4 vs Vanderbilt: 14.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 80.0 89
MISS Score 76.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 30.8 44.0 / 28.0
Assists 16.4 / 14.6 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.7 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 47.6 46.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 83.6 79.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 30.2 40.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.5 / 4.8 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 8.5 / 9.2 17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
MISS
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
MISS
--
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
MISS
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
VAN
MISS
VAN
ML
48% 16-17
69% 25-11
52% 17-16
56% 18-14
ATS
61% 20-13
78% 28-8
52% 17-16
56% 18-14
TTL
64% 21-12
58% 21-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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