Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cougars @ Bearcats BYU @ CIN

BYU

COUGARSBYU

20-9  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Arena
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

16-13  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
BEARCATS
0%
COUGARS --
BEARCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Cincinnati)
CougarsBYU (-3.5) 0 BearcatsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

2.9%

Bearcats Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

BYU By 1-7 points

2.2%

BYU By 8-14 points

0.4%

CIN By 1-7 points

9.3%

CIN By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
72
BYU
91
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
72
BYU
75
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bearcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bearcats (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Bearcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 BYU @ CIN 68 - 90
Feb 8, 2025 BYU @ CIN 66 - 84
Jan 25, 2025 CIN @ BYU 52 - 80
Jan 6, 2024 CIN @ BYU 71 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +52.0% more
Cincinnati: 16.8 vs BYU: 11.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Cincinnati: 38.6% vs BYU: 33.9%
Blocks (L5) +57.0% more
BYU: 3.9 vs Cincinnati: 1.7
Turnovers (L5) +26.0% more
BYU: 10.7 vs Cincinnati: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 72.0 68
CIN Score 91.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 33.9 43.0 / 29.0
Assists 16.8 / 11.1 24.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.7 / 3.9 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 45.9 50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 76.5 73.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 33.9 36.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.2 10.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 7.9 / 10.7 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
CIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU Advantage
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
CIN
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4% Total +/-: +0.1
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BYU
CIN
BYU
ML
67% 22-11
60% 21-14
74% 23-8
72% 23-9
ATS
64% 21-12
54% 19-16
74% 23-8
72% 23-9
TTL
67% 22-11
69% 24-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 2 hours, 9 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 2 hours, 21 minutes ago
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 8 hours, 16 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 21 hours, 7 minutes ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 8 hours ago