Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Demon Deacons @ Cavaliers WAKE @ UVA

WAKE FOREST

DEMON DEACONSWAKE

15-14  |  Road

70
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
John Paul Jones Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

25-4  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
DEMON DEACONS
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
DEMON DEACONS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Virginia)
Demon DeaconsWAKE (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Demon Deacons Cover

9.7%

Cavaliers Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

WAKE By 1-7 points

6.8%

WAKE By 8-14 points

1.7%

UVA By 1-7 points

18.6%

UVA By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
68
WAKE FOREST
81
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
63
WAKE FOREST
66
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 WAKE @ UVA 70 - 75
Feb 26, 2025 UVA @ WAKE 83 - 75
Feb 17, 2024 WAKE @ UVA 47 - 49
Jan 13, 2024 UVA @ WAKE 47 - 66
Jan 21, 2023 UVA @ WAKE 76 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +114.5% more
Virginia: 7.1 vs Wake Forest: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +17.4% more
Virginia: 10.7 vs Wake Forest: 9.1
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Virginia: 35.2 vs Wake Forest: 32.2
Free Throw % (L5) +3.5%
Virginia: 82.9% vs Wake Forest: 79.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 68.0 70
UVA Score 81.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 40.0 31.0 / 32.0
Assists 14.7 / 14.3 17.0 / 11.0
Blocks 7.1 / 3.3 9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 47.2 43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 82.9 / 79.4 65.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 32.2 43.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.2 / 6.1 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 9.1 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE
16-18-1 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
UVA Advantage
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.0
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
WAKE
UVA
WAKE
ML
67% 24-12
49% 17-18
72% 26-10
61% 20-13
ATS
75% 27-9
66% 23-12
72% 26-10
61% 20-13
TTL
53% 19-17
60% 21-14
100% 36-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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