Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Orange @ Cardinals SYR @ LOU

SYRACUSE

ORANGESYR

15-14  |  Road

62
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 9:00 PM ET
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LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

20-9  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
ORANGE
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
ORANGE --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Louisville)
OrangeSYR (-3.5) 0 CardinalsLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orange Cover

38.2%

Cardinals Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LOU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

SYR By 1-7 points

21.6%

SYR By 8-14 points

10.7%

LOU By 1-7 points

27.2%

LOU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
69
SYRACUSE
72
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
76
SYRACUSE
72
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orange Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Orange (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 SYR @ LOU 62 - 77
Jan 14, 2025 LOU @ SYR 85 - 61
Mar 2, 2024 SYR @ LOU 82 - 76
Feb 7, 2024 LOU @ SYR 92 - 94
Jan 3, 2023 SYR @ LOU 70 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +49.4% more
Louisville: 7.1 vs Syracuse: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +32.4% more
Louisville: 12.6 vs Syracuse: 9.5
Rebounding (L5) +28.7% more
Louisville: 36.3 vs Syracuse: 28.2
Assists (L5) +12.8% more
Louisville: 13.7 vs Syracuse: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SYR Score 69.0 62
LOU Score 72.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 35.7 40.0 / 21.0
Assists 13.7 / 12.1 17.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.3 / 4.0 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 47.1 43.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 67.5 82.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 36.3 / 28.2 37.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.1 / 4.8 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 9.5 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
LOU Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.6
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
SYR
LOU
SYR
ML
63% 22-13
78% 25-7
71% 24-10
69% 22-10
ATS
71% 25-10
69% 22-10
71% 24-10
69% 22-10
TTL
63% 22-13
66% 21-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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